Counterfactual Analysis: “What if?”

Working with alternative events and different scenarios

What is the method used for and who is it suitable for?

In counterfactual analysis, actual outcomes or events are compared with a counterfactual scenario to examine what would have happened if certain events, decisions or conditions had been different or had not occurred. Counterfactual analysis is particularly suitable for evaluating measures in order to assess the effects of interventions, for example.

How exactly does the method work?

There are different approaches. On the one hand, a counterfactual scenario (an “alternative reality”) can be developed, which is based on plausible assumptions and represents a realistic alternative to the actual outcome. The (hypothetical) counterfactual outcome is then compared with the actual outcome. Alternatively, the counterfactual scenario can be based on real data instead of plausible assumptions. For this, so-called “methodological twins” must be identified, which are similar in as many characteristics as possible and differ only in that, for example, one methodological twin has benefited from the measure to be evaluated and the other methodological twin has not. By comparing the methodological twins in the target variable, the “net effects” of the measure can be determined. Counterfactual analysis is frequently used in the humanities and social sciences, but is also applied in economics and medicine.

Reference

Angewendet wurde diese Methode unter anderem im Projekt „Evaluierung des LBG OIS Centers und des LGB Career Centers“ (September 2022 bis März 2023). Die zugehörige Publikation ist verfügbar:Régent, Verena und Ecker, Brigitte und Sardadvar, Sascha und Wagner, Valentin und Grund, Martin und van Scherpenberg, Cornelia (2023) Evaluierung des LBG OIS Centers und des LGB Career Centers. Projektbericht. WPZ Research. Wien.

Contact

Dr. Valentin Wagner und Dr. Cornelia van Scherpenberg