Scenario Technique: Designing Alternatives for the Future
What is it for and who is it suitable for?
The scenario technique is aimed at organizations, companies and political actors who have to make strategic decisions in uncertain environments. It is used to identify opportunities and risks, plan strategic measures and shape the long-term development of business models, markets or social conditions.
How does it work?
The scenario technique follows a key factor-based approach that is carried out in four steps:
- Identification of influencing factors: Collection of relevant trends, technologies and developments using methods such as horizon scanning or PESTEL analysis.
- Narrowing down the key factors: Selection of the key influencing factors using analyses such as the influence matrix.
- Development of projections: Creation of possible future assumptions for each key factor, for example through morphological boxes.
- Construction of scenarios: Merging consistent projections into scenarios that represent different, plausible development paths.
“Wild cards” can also be taken into account in order to anticipate strategic surprises. Scenarios are often prepared narratively and visually, for example using the 2×2 matrix or other systematic approaches.
Newly developed or is there a (scientific history)?
The scenario technique is based on scientifically founded concepts and was shaped by pioneers such as Herrmann Kahn. It is continuously being developed and includes a variety of creative and analytical methods that can be adapted depending on the application (Kosow and Gassner 2008, Pillkahn 2007).
Reference
The scenario technique is used successfully in the strategic planning of companies, in policy design and for the evaluation of technological and social developments. We use this method for the Federal Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, among others, to develop scenarios for the future use of key digital technologies.
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