Delphi Method: Pooling Knowledge Through Iterative Expert Interviews

The Delphi method is an iterative survey technique that collects and evaluates expert opinions in several rounds in order to generate orientation knowledge on complex and uncertain topics. Through the systematic exchange and feedback of results, it enables well-founded insights for strategic decision-making and future research.

What is it for and who is it suitable for?
The Delphi method is suitable for organizations, companies and political actors who want to analyze complex and unclear issues. It is often used in strategic planning, technology and social research as well as in political consulting to generate consolidated expert knowledge.

How does it work?
The Delphi method takes place in several rounds:

1. First round of interviews: Collection of individual assessments of the experts on a defined topic.
2. Intermediate evaluation: Aggregation and analysis of the results, feedback to the participants in the form of averaged values or anonymized arguments.
3. Follow-up rounds: Experts provide a revised assessment based on the interim results.
4. Consolidation: The iterative feedback and discussion lead to a synthesis of opinions and well-founded results.

The method makes it possible to make divergent views visible and at the same time achieve a high degree of consensus.

Newly developed or is there a (scientific history)?
The Delphi method was developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s and has since established itself as a central method of futurology (Dalkey and Helmer 1962). It is regularly developed further and implemented in modern electronic formats.

Reference
The Delphi method was used, for example, in the short study “Pandemic-related changes for society and innovation in Germany” funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection. We use this method in studies for the German Bundestag, among others, in order to survey a wide range of expert panels.

Contact
Dr. Robert Peters