Horizon Scanning: Recognizing and Exploiting Trends at an Early Stage

Horizon scanning is a systematic approach to strategic foresight that helps organizations to look beyond the traditional planning horizon. By identifying and evaluating weak signals and future trends, companies and political actors can react to changes at an early stage, exploit opportunities and minimize risks. This method promotes a culture of innovation and resilience, while supporting strategic decisions and creating long-term competitive advantages.

What is it for and who is it suitable for?
Horizon scanning is suitable for companies, political actors and organizations that operate in dynamic and complex environments. It is used for the early identification of trends and the anticipation of potential challenges in order to make well-founded strategic decisions.

How does it work?
Horizon Scanning goes through five phases:

1. Scoping: Definition of search strategies, search areas, terms and objectives. Selection of suitable tools and methods.
2. Scanning: Structured information gathering, evaluation of the credibility and relevance of the collected data.
3. Assessment: Aggregation of relevant signals, analysis of interactions and uncertainties and prioritization of trends.
4. Deep dives: Derivation of specific recommendations for action and strategic communication with stakeholders.
5. Monitoring: Establishment of a continuous process for tracking and adapting identified trends.

Newly developed or is there a (scientific history)?
Horizon scanning is based on scientific approaches to strategic foresight and is continuously being developed further. It combines findings from methods such as signal and trend analysis (Géring et al. 2021, Cuhls 2020) with current technologies such as AI and big data to improve dynamic environmental analysis.

References
Trend analysis has been used, for example, to identify and evaluate megatrends such as digitalization and demographic change in national innovation strategies and entrepreneurial future projects. We also use this method in horizon scanning for the Office of Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag.

Contact
Tobias Hungerland, Dr. Robert Peters