Trend Analysis: Recognizing and Understanding Changes at an Early Stage
Trend analysis is a method of strategic foresight that examines changes in society, the economy and technology. The aim is to identify developments at an early stage, assess their impact and make well-founded decisions on this basis. By combining it with other methods such as the PESTEL framework, it offers organizations a holistic approach to preparing for future challenges and opportunities.
What is it for and who is it suitable for?
Trend analysis is aimed at organizations, companies and political players who want to align strategic decisions with future developments. It is used to identify innovation potential, adapt business models, minimize risks and for long-term planning.
How does it work?
Trend analysis involves a typical process:
- Identification of relevant influencing factors: Selection of topics that are important for the target group.
- Data collection and analysis: Systematic collection of information from specific sources.
- Trend extraction and description: Identification and definition of trends based on the collected data.
- Sensemaking and trend evaluation: Evaluation of trends in terms of their relevance, impact and uncertainties.
These steps are often combined with trend scouting and other methods such as the PESTEL framework to enable a well-founded and holistic analysis.
Newly developed or is there a (scientific history)?
Trend analysis is based on established scientific concepts (e.g. Naisbitt 1984, Kreibich 2008) and is continuously being developed further. It is often used in combination with methods such as trend scouting and frameworks such as PESTEL in order to improve the quality and depth of the analysis.
Reference
Trend analysis has been used, for example, to identify and evaluate megatrends such as digitalization and demographic change in national innovation strategies and corporate future projects. We use this method in studies for the Deutsche Bundesbank, among others.
Contact
Dr. Robert Peters